Monday, August 15, 2011
Which percentage is more important? 95%, 84%, or 11%? [See details - Election '08]?
I marked your question interesting because it caused me to think. So thanks for that. I am not a statistician but just applying common sense to your statistics, I think the 11% number is the most interesting one. Why? Because it shows the amount of "shift" that occurred between 2004 and 2008. And it forces us to ask, "Why"? The premise that 84% of Blacks vote Democratic regularly sounds high to me but I am not an expert. If I were guessing, I would have estimated that about 66% of Blacks vote Democratic regularly, putting more than 11% in the "variable" category. But this was an election cycle that offered some different issues and options, especially for Blacks. Thanks again for your question.
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